Episode 34: The other perspective

00:00:00: Imagine you wanted to join a club, and you were kept waiting for twenty-five years.

00:00:06: You negotiate, you meet regularly, you exchange ideas.

00:00:11: Your neighbours eventually get in, but the answer to you is always, you're not ready yet.

00:00:19: André Collard, EPP, says this is what the EU has done with Bosnia and Herzegovina.

00:00:26: As rapporteur for the EU enlargement, he knows the reasons behind that.

00:00:30: There is still a lot that needs to be done when it comes to reforms, judiciary reforms, constitutional reforms, societal reforms, and also when it comes to things like media freedom and such, Bosnia and Herzegovina is unfortunately falling behind.

00:00:48: After twenty-five years of talks, and even though Bosnia and Herzegovina is an official EU accession candidate since Uncertainty remains within the country's people.

00:01:00: Yet, many of Bosnia's neighbouring countries have already joined the EU.

00:01:05: How much patience can the country muster before looking for other partners?

00:01:34: The public opinion towards the European Union still indicates that the majority of people, the majority of Bosnian Herzegovina is in favor of joining to the European Union.

00:01:47: However, these figures are slowly decreasing because if we compare surveys from ten or five years ago and surveys today, the percentage of those in favor of European Union are slowly decreasing.

00:02:06: He is policy officer for education and training at ESA and originally from Bosnia.

00:02:12: In this episode of We Work Europe, we talk about countries in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans that want to join the EU.

00:02:20: Will they join the EU soon?

00:02:22: And if so, what can be learned from the past enlargement processes?

00:02:27: Certain proportion of population actually lost the interest.

00:02:32: or simply decided that they couldn't wait anymore for the EU to come to Bosnia.

00:02:41: So they simply decided for them to go to the European Union.

00:02:46: If you're not allowed as a country, you can always try as an individual.

00:02:51: That's what's happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina today.

00:02:54: Just three point.

00:02:55: two million people remain in the country.

00:02:58: An estimated two million have migrated to other countries.

00:03:01: most of them within the EU.

00:03:04: This means that the country has one of the world's largest diasporas relative to its population.

00:03:10: The main reason for this exodus is the weak economy and therefore missing perspectives.

00:03:16: A challenge which neighbouring countries and EU members such as Bulgaria must face as well.

00:03:22: But there's a huge difference between Bosnia and many of its neighbouring countries, says Luban Bulic.

00:03:28: I remember when we were comparing, for example, my country with the other countries using different economic parameters.

00:03:37: And we were kind of similar in two thousands.

00:03:41: They weren't really doing much better than, for example, Bosnia or Montenegro or Serbia.

00:03:47: But now when you compare the figures, they are much different.

00:03:52: they seem to be much better off than they were before joining the EU.

00:03:58: At the beginning of the two thousands, the standard of living and economic situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina was comparable to that of Bulgaria.

00:04:07: Today, Bulgaria's GDP is four times higher.

00:04:11: Countries that have joined the EU have therefore benefited enormously, while those that were not allowed to do so have only made small progress in their development.

00:04:21: But why were countries such as Bulgaria allowed to join, whereas Bosnia couldn't?

00:04:33: Just a few years earlier, in nineteen ninety-five, Bosnia signed the Dayton Agreement with Croatia and Serbia, which was brokered by the USA, Russia and the EU.

00:04:44: This agreement officially ended the Bosnian War, which claimed more than one hundred thousand lives between nineteen ninety-two and nineteen ninety-five.

00:04:53: In an interview from the U.S.

00:04:54: American News Channel PBS, former U.S.

00:04:57: Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrook pointed out what the agreement created.

00:05:03: First of all, the issue of what kind of a country this will be.

00:05:07: Is this a unified country or is this really two countries under a minimal government?

00:05:13: Well,

00:05:14: it is one country.

00:05:15: That was the deal.

00:05:17: That country's divided into two entities.

00:05:19: Now, in theory, these entities should be like American states or Canadian provinces.

00:05:24: But in the real world, these entities have been fighting with each other, so the demarcation line between them became treated as a battleground line, not as the line, say, between New York and New Jersey.

00:05:36: It got very, very tough, but it is one country, one central government.

00:05:40: It will be freely elected.

00:05:42: The EU quickly offered itself as a partner and provider of prospects for the country.

00:05:48: As early as nineteen ninety-seven, it had drawn up a regional concept for the western Balkan countries.

00:05:54: This was seen as the beginning of bilateral relations.

00:05:58: Through integration, the EU wanted to secure peace on the peninsula.

00:06:02: In two thousand and three, the EU pledged a European perspective for Bosnia at the Thessaloniki summit.

00:06:09: The Stabilisation and Association Agreement was signed five years after, a prerequisite for EU accession.

00:06:16: It came fully into force in two thousand and fifteen, already twenty years after the war had ended.

00:06:23: And, another ten years later, in twenty twenty-five, the country still does not fulfil the criteria for EU accession.

00:06:32: It is still divided between the Serb-dominated Republic of Serbska, and the Bosnian-dominated Federation of Bosnia.

00:06:40: Tensions and new conflicts seem to be inevitable.

00:06:44: Andre Koller, European Parliament rapporteur for Bosnia, at a press conference in July.

00:06:49: It

00:06:49: was one of the topics that I tried to cover in the report for two thousand and twenty three in two thousand and twenty four.

00:06:57: Saying that the inability of Bosnia and Herzegovina to make a move from Dayton to Brussels is something that of course we cannot welcome.

00:07:08: It is something that we should regret because we can see it not only as the failure of Bosnia and Herzegovina but also as our own failure because we weren't able to work effectively with the country to make the necessary reforms.

00:07:23: According to Kola, It is not only the country itself that is to blame, but also the EU to some extent.

00:07:31: Some experts believe that Bosnia and Herzegovina will not join the EU in the next five years.

00:07:37: The most pessimistic voices fear that it will take until twenty fifty.

00:07:42: There is a lot of talk and apparently not much action.

00:07:45: The think tank, European Western Balkans, compares this situation to Samuel Beckett's play Waiting for Godot.

00:07:53: in which the two main characters, Vladimir and Estragon, experience a multitude of discussions, debates and moments revolving around existential questions while waiting for Godot, who never comes.

00:08:05: Despite all the challenges, Liuban Bulic still hopes for his country to join the EU soon, but with a different approach than the countries in two thousand and four in two thousand and seven.

00:08:16: It is very important for all of us who are joining to the EU to not to jump into the trap of expectation that the EU is a magical door that opens our path to heaven.

00:08:31: Of course, experiences are different and in certain areas, in certain sectors, joining to the EU has helped a lot.

00:08:41: New members.

00:08:42: they have to cope with the EU common market powers, for example.

00:08:48: They have to find their place on the European common market, which is not an easy task for relatively small countries with weak economies.

00:08:58: So I'm aware that they might have been certain challenges, but then again, numbers are.

00:09:06: Very obvious and those numbers are directing us to the point that those countries are much better off after joining the EU than before.

00:09:19: The reason for Luban's optimism.

00:09:21: There is no real alternative for his country.

00:09:24: Neither for the EU, if Europe doesn't want to lose its influence on the Balkan Peninsula to Russia, China or Iran, nor for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

00:09:34: As Luban points out.

00:09:36: The only alternative I could think of is status quo, staying at this point where we currently are, doing certain reforms, trade a bit here, reform a bit there, but with no real direction.

00:09:53: Another alternative could be regional cooperation.

00:09:56: We already have regional cooperation developed to a certain extent.

00:10:02: But of course, regional cooperation can never replace European common market or European cohesion policies.

00:10:11: So I don't see it as a real alternative to the European Union.

00:10:16: And third possible alternative would be to wait for, I don't know, better times or whatever it should be.

00:10:25: But then in my opinion, Through waiting, we only lose more because it means slower reforms, less investments from abroad.

00:10:38: It means worse standards in public administration.

00:10:43: According to Liuban, the EU has magnificent instruments that could facilitate the development of Bosnia and Herzegovina to catch up with the existing EU member states surrounding the country.

00:10:55: It is fascinating to see how, thanks to the common market and the economic policies, development of European countries took place.

00:11:06: But not only of the European countries that were already developed at the moment when the European Union was created, but also the other ones that were joining.

00:11:17: Cohesion policy is an amazing thing.

00:11:20: Also... A further developed Bosnian Herzegovina, being integrated to the EU family, would reduce the risk of another outbreak of local conflicts and tensions.

00:11:30: Especially since one of the European promises is the freedom of movement.

00:11:35: We used to have it, thirty-five, forty years ago, in the Balkans when we were part of one country.

00:11:42: But unfortunately now we are faced with borders wherever we go.

00:11:50: If you imagine that we live in very small countries, for example, Bosnia is smaller than most of German federal states.

00:11:59: Luban responds to all those calling for more nationalism and national competences within the EU from a Bosnian perspective.

00:12:06: I have a very simple answer to then.

00:12:09: Just look back to what happened in Yugoslavia, where nationalism, more nationalism and more borders was introduced and was pushed forward.

00:12:21: This shouldn't be the path European Union is going towards.

00:12:27: Currently, nine countries are prospective members of the European Union.

00:12:32: Bosnia and Herzegovina is just one of them.

00:12:35: All countries have different backgrounds and progress when it comes to joining the bloc.

00:12:40: Some have been waiting for decades.

00:12:42: Others, like Ukraine, Georgia or Moldova, had to be admitted only recently because of the war against Ukraine.

00:12:50: There are good reasons for waiting, and a slow but steady approximation.

00:12:54: However, the EU was founded as a peace project.

00:12:58: So, if enlargement could lead to more stability and peace, the Union should not hesitate too long.

00:13:04: The twenty-year history of EU enlargement has shown us that the process has not fulfilled all expectations.

00:13:11: Sometimes it has led to frustration.

00:13:14: But the figures about economic growth and societal development speak a different language.

00:13:20: Those countries who entered the EU benefited enormously in comparison to their neighbours.

00:13:25: And perhaps we should not be too critical of a club of countries that so many others are desperate to join.

00:13:37: If you have any interesting topics or feedback for us, just contact isa.org.

00:13:48: WeWorkEurope is the podcast from Isa, the European Centre for Workers' Questions, which receives financial support from the European Union.

00:13:57: This podcast was narrated by me, Rebecca Sharpe, script and production by Escucha Audio Identity.